7 of Elon Musk’s most absurd prophecies

Elon Musk has a great brain. The tycoon has grown the image of a Renaissance man with licenses and cash to solve the world’s biggest problems.

Last month, the 50-year-old announced another bold goal. Treating tinnitus within 5 years using a brain transplant.

Skeptics think that timelines are unrealistic because they are always unrealistic.

The richest man in the world compiled the cornucopia. epic predictions. Here are the seven most bizarre things.

Prediction 1: Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving “next year”.
Reality: next year never comes

Arguably Musk’s most infamous promise is his relentless insistence that Tesla will drive itself “next year”. He first made a prediction in 2014, but it is still a long way from becoming a reality.

Even Musk’s engineers didn’t buy it until 2021. According to Leaked Comments by CJ MooreTesla’s Autopilot Software Head, Level 5 Autonomy remains a distant prospect..

“Elon’s [claim] The California Department of Motor Vehicles said in a call with Tesla officials: “Tesla is currently level 2.”

However, this feedback did not dull Musk’s optimism. in January that Fully autonomous driving (FSD) is expected to reach within 12 months for the ninth consecutive year.

Prediction 2: 1 million Tesla robot taxis on the road by 2020
Reality: Zero Tesla robo-taxi on the road in 2022

Credit: Nicole Gray

FSD’s promise was clearly not bold enough. In 2019, Musk made a bolder prediction about self-driving cars. Tesla has a million “robot taxi“On the road in 2020.

Musk envisioned Tesla owners renting out their cars to get around and the company cutting revenue. FSD vehicles will compete with ride-hailing giants like Uber and Lyft.

Two years after the deadline, Musk remains optimistic.

at Tesla First quarter results announcedHe said the robotaxi without a steering wheel or pedals will start mass production by 2024.

Prediction 3: Few new cases of COVID-19 in the US by the end of April
Reality: Over 20,000 cases per day by the end of April

A few days after the WHO declared a global pandemic of COVID-19 in March 2020, Musk predicted that there would be “nearly zero new cases” in the US by the end of April.

Sadly he was wrong. By the time his deadline came, the daily number had crossed 20,000. almost two years later, US report There were 1.35 million new infections every day.

Musk continued to downplay the risk of the virus and the need to limit it, especially when the rules affect Tesla’s operations.

But he offered generously. Allow company employees to stay at home if they feel unsafe in the factory. he later The employee was reportedly fired. Because he didn’t come back.

Prediction 4: Neuralink will be in human skulls by 2020
Reality: Neuralink hasn’t started testing on humans yet.

Musk’s Neuralink startup is developing a chip that connects the brain to a computer. teflon elon By 2020, the technology will be implanted in human skulls

It hasn’t happened yet, but Neuralink put the chip in the monkey. Apes were filmed playing pong with their hearts in exchange for a banana smoothie.

Scientist pointed out Monkeys have been playing video games by heart for nearly 20 years. Still, some were impressed with the engineering.

Musk, meanwhile, revised its goals for human experiments. In January he made it his own Favorite Deadline: Next year.

Prediction 5: Neuralink “solves” autism.
Reality: Autism is not a disease

Musk did a live demo of the Neuralink device earlier this year.
Credit: Steve Jurvetson

Neuralink’s first and honorable goal was to restore mobility in paraplegics. But that’s just the beginning of Elon.

Entrepreneurs hope the chip will cure neurological conditions, enable telepathy, and allow humans to thrive alongside superintelligent machines.

He also expects Neuralink to “solve many brain-related diseases, such as autism.”

His predictions were uproar. Critics have pointed out that autism is not a disease. It cannot be “resolved” and should not be treated as a defect.

But Musk later dispelled some of the stigma of disability by: public discussion their own autistic experiences.

Prediction 6: 1 million people will live on Mars by 2050
Reality: Depends on how many people die on the trip.

When not busy with transportation innovations, AI and people merging, and stand-up comedy, Musk humanity multi-planetary species.

The SpaceX founders chose Mars as our next home. He believes that by 2050, one million people will live on the red planet.

That’s definitely a bold goal.

The elliptical orbit of Earth and Mars is the distance between Earth and Mars. Planets range from 33.9 million miles to 250 million miles.

Musk plans to launch the rocket for a short period when orbit is favorable for travel, but that happens every 26 months.

Founder Joseph Pesenti YouTube Channel Real Life LoreThe plan is estimated to cost 100,000 trips and trillions of dollars by Starship spacecraft.

It would take thousands of trips to transport a million people and their cargo to Mars.

Musk said he would give colonists loans for travel. A job on Mars could help pay them back.


Unfortunately, their journey will be harsh and life on Mars will be terrible. But Musk’s recent obsession could at least give space slaves a company or a replacement.

Prediction 7: Tesla’s robots will be worth more than the car business
Reality: Possible — If Tesla Goes Bankrupt

Tesla to launch humanoid robot prototypes early next year
Credit: Tesla

Tesla is best known for its cars, but Musk says. “The most important product” The robot the company is developing is a robot called Optimus.

Musk said in April, “Anyone with insight or an attentive listener will understand that the Optimus is ultimately more valuable than the automotive business and more valuable than fully autonomous driving. That is my firm belief.”

It doesn’t look like it will happen anytime soon. So far, the only demonstration of a humanoid has been a person dancing in a bodysuit.

While a focus on Optimus can energize Tesla investors, employees, and customers, Musk’s confidence risks backfired.

After all, his hype machine tends to overdrive when normal business struggles. Analysts believe that is the case with Tesla..

His unrealistic goals also caused problems at Neuralink.

“There were top-down complaints about the pace of progress while moving at an unprecedented pace,” said the former employee. told Fortune. “Still, Elon was not satisfied.”

That doesn’t mean Musk has to dream big. “As the saying goesshooting for the moon. I miss you earth Between star” — It would be a huge disappointment for Elon.

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