NBA Pick, Best Choice for Warriors-Mavericks: Why Dallas Could Avoid Elimination to Golden State in Game 4


Usashi

Now with the start of the 2021-22 NBA regular season, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be offering daily picks during the postseason. Sam Quinn will have at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines were powered by Caesar Sportsbook.

Latest odds:

Dallas Mavericks -1

Admittedly, I had a preconceived notion about the team losing 3-0. I expected almost every team to be swept away. Because it’s easy to remember that anecdotally such a deficit causes the team to lose morale. However, a total of 146 teams in NBA history are 3-0 behind in the series. Of those 146, 56 won the fourth game. The win rate is 38.4%. Is that number particularly large? No…until I remember those teams combined and won literally zero games up to that point in the series. Anyway, getting the cleaning done seems to be a more difficult task than we previously believed. And remember. Warriors tend to be pretty crazy playing with food before they eat it. Remember when they beat Memphis Grizzlies 3-1 and lost Game 5 39? They also failed to beat Denver in the second round, and with the exception of a series featuring Kevin Durant, the Warriors actually completed only two sweeps in Stephen Curry’s time. Now the Warriors are a better team. What if you want to bet on a sweep on its own? You are justified in doing so. But the Mavericks are at home and have arguably the best players in the series, and their role players are shooting slightly better than 3 to 30%. The Warriors will win this series. I’m pretty sure the Mavericks still have some fights left for them. Choice: Mavericks -1

The same logic applied to my game 3 over pick still applies when under wound hits. Dallas are really struggling to defend the Warriors, and the difference between their free movement and the Phoenix’s tighter build isn’t something they can address over seven games if their roster isn’t suited to either task. Not only did Andrew Wiggins defend him, but Luka Doncic still had a 40-point game in a row. The lack of 3-point shooting was the biggest reason for this game. I’m betting that it will regress to the mean. Choice: 215.5 or later

Spencer Dinwiddy’s three-point line was inflated with his best performance. He’s made four three-pointers in four or more than four this postseason… but has made less than two in 10 playoff games. This is also a 32.2% three-point shooter for his career and his tendencies were fully revealed in the postseason. What if Dinwiddy gets hot? He can’t stop. But he has more bad games than good games, and this line is slightly skewed towards where good games become the norm. Select. Under 2.5, Dinwiddy made a three-point shot

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