Under the PAR principle, the Miami Heat is fully in effect and will slow Jayson Tatum once again in Game 4.


According to 2015 census data found with a quick Google search, about half of the US population lives in the Eastern time zone. That said, about half of those reading this newsletter live in Eastern Standard Time, what do you know?

I have no idea how you do it.

As you know — and according to the emails and direct messages I’ve received, many haven’t — I was on vacation last week. I spent a week with my wife and dog in the woods of western Michigan along Lake Michigan. It was great except for watching sports. Everything starts too late! Not only will you have to wait all day for something to start, but by the time you get to the second half of the game you’ll be fighting the urge to fall asleep.

Seriously, on the third day of vacation I was exhausted. I think you’ll get used to living there, but, my friends, you don’t have to. It solidified the belief that the mountains and the central time zone are the best places for sports fans. Nothing starts too early and nothing ends too late.

Now let’s take a look at tonight’s recommendations before making up for lost sleep on vacation.

Always East and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The hot ticket

Celtics Hit, 8:30pm | TV: ESPN

  • main trend: The Miami Heat are 12-2 this postseason according to the PAR principle.
  • Pick: Jayson Tatum under 38.5 points, assists, rebounds (+100)

Friends, the Miami Heat continues to be a great source of income, so we hope you will continue to follow the PAR principles during your vacation. Series or players don’t matter. Only principle knows victory. They lost 2-1 in their first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, meaning they are now 12-2 in this postseason.

Jayson Tatum broke through the first game of the series and finished with 43 PAR when his total was set at 40.5. He was followed by 37 PAR in Game 2 and 20 PAR in Game 3. As a result, the sum is falling, but it is worth 38.5 tonight, especially at even odds.

Jonathan Coachman presents Monday’s best bets with Zack Cimini, John Bollman and Allie O’Neill. Download Early Edge from here and follow. Apple Podcast And spotify.

I’ve seen it many times, but the principle is simple for beginners. In the playoffs, Miami’s defensive philosophy is to take away the opponent’s best players and let the rest of the team win them. Judging by Miami’s long postseason success with players of all ages, this is effective. In Game 1, Heat couldn’t stop Tatum out of his numbers, but it was an inefficient night for Tatum’s teammates as well. Miami won. Not only did Tatum perform well in Game 2, but his teammates shot 16 of 3 with 34, so Boston won 25. Tatum struggled in Game 3, and even Jalen Brown’s stellar performance didn’t help. Boston overcame it. Miami won again.

See how simple it is? Taking away your opponent’s best player may not be enough to beat you, even if some of his teammates play great. Miami will be back tonight. Neither Tatum nor Boston have performed badly in their streak this postseason, but Tatum can finish below this sum even if he plays well.

SportsLine has this to say about the game: We know that many of us are not as comfortable betting on player props as in traditional play. But you might want to give it a try tonight. The projection model doesn’t see much value for spreads or sums in Game 4..


💰 Recommended

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⚾ MLB

Rockies at Pirates, 6:35pm | TV: MLB.TV

Latest odds:

Colorado Rockies +115

Pick: Rocky Mountains (+120) — The Rockies are the better team in this game but Pittsburgh is preferred and I can only imagine because the Rockies were much better at home. Colorado went 14-11 this season at Coors Field, but 5-10 elsewhere. This isn’t new to Colorado, but whether the Rocky Mountains are worse on the road or not doesn’t change the fact that the Pirates stink everywhere.

Pittsburgh are 9-13 at home and have a 16-24 overall record. Tonight’s pitching showdown isn’t good either way, but Colorado’s Chad Kuhl keeps the ball in the park. Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker gives up an incredible amount of hard contact and dingers and it’s hard to bet on a pitcher who likes it. It’s even harder when he’s backed by one of the worst bullpen in baseball. Of course, Colorado’s bullpen is also terrible, so taking over is a nice play, but you’re relying on one of the worst offenses in baseball: the Pittsburgh attack. In summary, the Pirates have a bad starting pitcher, a bad bullpen, and a bad attack. Sounds like a team you want to bet on with your favorite team? I’m not!

main trend: The Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 home matches.

Cubs at Reds, 6:40pm | TV: ESPN+

Latest odds:

Cincinnati Reds +110

Pick: Red (+110) — This game isn’t much different from what I’ve been discussing about Rockies and Pirates. Neither of these teams are good, but the Cubs don’t deserve any favors. I trust Chicago starter Drew Smyly more than Cincinnati’s Vladimir Gutierrez. Like Gutierrez, he doesn’t strike out anyone and the contacts he allows tends to be great.

In a ballpark like Cincinnati, loud contact is not advantageous for pitchers. The ball flew with a reckless abandon and I think Red is a bit undervalued here. My figures suggest that this game is essentially a coin toss game and that Cincinnati should prefer it slightly. There is so much value to the Reds here.

main trend: Cincinnati have won 5 of their last 7 meetings in Cincinnati.

🔒 Today’s SportsLine Selection: Projection model and SportsLine expert John Bollman agrees to play the money line tonight in a new fight between the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays..


🏒 Stanley Cup Parlay

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I realized I was watching more of the Stanley Cup playoffs than the NHL regular season. Because a lot of NBA playoff games have been on the rise. This two-team parlay pays +332 You’re a monster worth believing in me, Tommy Pucks.

  • Lightning (-125)
  • Blues (+140)

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